Japan
variable mortgages ~0.6–1.0%; long-term fixed (Flat 35) ~2.5–3.2% (mid-2026), world-class infrastructure, yen weakness = entry opportunity
Currency Risk
JPY
Mortgage financing is not available to non-resident buyers in practice. Only two channels are published: Bank of China Tokyo Branch, which accepts applications from non-residents and does not publish a rate; and a Tokyo Star Bank product limited to residents of Taiwan and Hong Kong. JHF products (Flat 35 and Flat 50) require Japanese nationality or permanent residence and are not accessible to non-residents.
* Exchange rates shown for illustration only, based on ECB mid-market rate. Actual transactions may be subject to conversion fees.
✅ Strengths
- ▸Ultra-low mortgage rates (1.0–1.6%) create strong positive carry
- ▸G7 governance; world-class rule of law (TI CPI 78)
- ▸Weak yen = currency entry discount for foreign investors
⚠ Risks
- ▸Declining population (-0.5%/yr) — demand shrinking outside major cities
- ▸Building depreciation (RC 47yr, wood 22yr) — structures lose all value
- ▸Minpaku law: 180-day STR cap severely limits short-term rental income
CASABROVA Verdict
Unique carry trade opportunity — borrow at 1% to yield 4-6%. Focus on Tokyo/Osaka core. Building depreciation is key risk.
Israeli: Profile adjusted score 66.5 (rank #16).
Recommended Strategy
Tokyo 23-ward RC mansions post-1981 for LT rental. Leverage ultra-low rates. Avoid wooden structures and rural areas.
Based on CASABROVA Waves 1–8, current to July 1, 2026. Not financial or legal advice.