This article was curated by CASABROVA's AI editorial system and reviewed by our editors.
June 2026 edition · Published 1 July 2026
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TL;DR
- The rankings reshuffled for a healthy reason, not a market swing. We upgraded how the Score reads bubble risk and data transparency and applied it on 1 July. That moved the table more than a normal month would — so read this month as a one-time reset.
- Netherlands and Ireland edged past Poland at the very top — three markets now sit within half a point of each other (76.4 / 76.0 / 76.0). The new method rewards places with deep, reliable public data, and both score near the top on that.
- The frothier markets slipped most. Japan, Georgia, Australia, Cyprus and Thailand took the biggest cuts as the sharper bubble reading kicked in — Georgia hit hardest, on both a high bubble reading and the thinnest public data.
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This month's Score — Top 5
| # | Market | Score (1 Jul) | Last month | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇳🇱 Netherlands | 76.4 | 74.6 (#3) | ▲ +1.8 · up 2 places |
| 2 | 🇮🇪 Ireland | 76.0 | 74.2 (#5) | ▲ +1.8 · up 3 places |
| 3 | 🇵🇱 Poland | 76.0 | 77.2 (#1) | ▼ −1.2 · down 2 places |
| 4 | 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates | 75.6 | 74.3 (#4) | ▬ +1.3 · unchanged |
| 5 | 🇩🇰 Denmark | 74.5 | 76.7 (#2) | ▼ −2.2 · down 3 places |
The headline is how close the top is. Netherlands, Ireland and Poland are separated by four-tenths of a point — effectively a three-way tie for first. Poland led last month and hasn't done anything wrong; it simply scores a notch lower on data transparency, and that counts for a little more under the refreshed method. The UAE holds a steady fourth. Denmark is the cautionary note near the top — excellent data, but a medium-high bubble reading pulled it from second to fifth.
Rounding out the upper tier (ranks 6–8): 🇬🇧 United Kingdom (73.6, up to #6), 🇪🇪 Estonia (72.9, #7), and 🇸🇮 Slovenia (72.1, up four places to #8) — Slovenia the quiet winner of the month.
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Movers (Score change of 2+ points)
Every 2-plus-point mover this month was downward. No market gained 2 or more; the largest gains were the Netherlands and Ireland at +1.8. That one-sidedness is the tell that this is a recalibration — when a scoring method is upgraded, scores reset together rather than climb.
| Market | Move | Rank | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇯🇵 Japan | −5.2 | #6 → #12 | The sharpest reset on the board; its mid-tier data transparency now weighs more heavily against it. |
| 🇬🇪 Georgia | −4.4 | #19 → #26 | Hit from both sides — the highest bubble reading on the board and by far the thinnest public data. |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | −4.0 | #17 → #24 | A high bubble reading now carries a stiffer penalty, even though its data is among the best. |
| 🇨🇾 Cyprus | −3.6 | #14 → #19 | An elevated (medium-high) bubble reading under the new method. |
| 🇹🇭 Thailand | −3.3 | #18 → #23 | Elevated bubble reading plus only mid-level data transparency. |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | −2.9 | #10 → #11 | Trimmed by the reset but still comfortably mid-table; barely moved in rank. |
| 🇬🇷 Greece | −2.9 | #11 → #14 | The bubble/transparency reset — not a cycle change (see Cycle Watch). |
| 🇸🇬 Singapore | −2.9 | #28 → #29 | Already the lowest-scored market; the reset widened the gap. |
| 🇩🇰 Denmark | −2.2 | #2 → #5 | Great data, but a medium-high bubble reading cost it three places near the top. |
Big rank shuffles worth noting even where the score moved less than 2 points: Spain jumped five places (#23 → #18) and Israel, Romania and New Zealand each climbed four, while Georgia and Australia each dropped seven. Again — mostly the mechanics of the new method settling in.
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Cycle Phase Watch
CASABROVA reads the property cycle through the lens that matters to a cross-border buyer: where foreign capital is flowing. Foreign investment leads; prices lag. A market can look busy on the surface — local buyers keeping transactions up, prices still rising — while foreign money is quietly heading for the exit. That's the withdrawal phase, and catching it early is the whole point of what we do.
Three markets are in withdrawal, for the same reason each time: foreign capital is pulling back while prices stay high.
- Portugal 🇵🇹 — withdrawal. Foreign real-estate investment turned down in 2024 while prices kept climbing — the classic late-cycle divergence.
- Spain 🇪🇸 — withdrawal. Purchases by non-resident foreigners fell about 4% year-on-year and the foreign share of the market slipped, even as headline prices rose. And Madrid is actively pushing foreign capital out: the golden-visa property route ended in April 2025, with a proposed 100% purchase tax on non-EU, non-resident buyers. Money leaving at the top of the market.
- Czechia 🇨🇿 — withdrawal. The tell is stark — local investors made up roughly 80% of real-estate volume in 2025, in a market foreign capital used to dominate. Total activity holds up because Czechs are buying; the foreign investor has stepped back.
Elsewhere:
- Germany 🇩🇪 and the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 — working out of correction toward recovery. Prices and activity stabilizing off their lows — historically the patient buyer's entry window.
- Israel 🇮🇱 — correction (domestic housing). Transaction volume is still well below its norm — the market is working through a downswing.
- Greece 🇬🇷 — peak, on watch. Sales volume has eased from its 2023 high, but foreign real-estate investment was still rising through 2024, so we're not calling a turn yet. Firmly on the watch list.
Cycle calls track foreign-capital and transaction trends through the latest available data; 2025 national aggregates are provisional while full-year figures finalize.
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Virtual Portfolio — this month's moves
The CASABROVA Virtual Portfolio is our paper-trading track record: it opens a position only when a market meets our full set of entry conditions, and holds until the cycle turns. This month there's one clean new entry and one market we're watching rather than buying.
- Romania 🇷🇴 — new entry ✓. Romania meets the conditions for a clean entry this month — the only market that fully qualifies right now.
- Poland 🇵🇱 — on watch, not a new buy. Poland remains one of our strongest markets on fundamentals (and #3 on the Score), but activity has cooled noticeably even as prices kept climbing. Foreign capital itself still looks healthy — foreign real-estate investment has roughly kept pace with Poland's overall foreign investment since 2015 — so this looks like a market topping out rather than money leaving. It stays on the watch list, not a fresh entry.
The Virtual Portfolio is an educational paper-trading model — not investment advice. Any country figures are general market data, not a description of our entry criteria.
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Regulatory & Tax Updates
Most of the past month's activity in our legal-and-tax dataset was routine data maintenance rather than new law. The items worth an investor's attention:
- Canada 🇨🇦 — foreign-buyer ban extended to 1 January 2027. The federal ban on non-residents buying residential property has been extended; in practice the major cities are closed to foreign buyers until then. Add a 1% annual Underused Housing Tax and provincial surtaxes of 20–25% on entry. If Canada is on someone's list, the practical answer for now is "wait."
- Georgia 🇬🇪 — residency-by-investment bar is rising. The property threshold for Georgia's residence-by-investment route is moving up to roughly US$150k (from about US$100k), noted from March 2026. Still one of the lowest entry costs we track, but the door is narrowing.
- A tax-trap reminder (UAE 🇦🇪 for Belgian residents). The UAE's "0% rental / 0% capital-gains" headline can be neutralized for a Belgian-resident buyer: the Belgium–UAE treaty only exempts income actually taxed at source, and since the UAE doesn't tax it, Belgium can tax the rent instead. The wider lesson holds everywhere — your home country's rules can override a zero-tax destination.
These notes come from CASABROVA's reference dataset to help you orient, not as tax or legal advice. Always confirm your own situation with a qualified professional before you buy.
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Methodology note
Scores are the CASABROVA Score (v6), refreshed on the 1st-of-month cut. This June 2026 edition is built on the 1 July 2026 monthly cut, compared against the 1 June 2026 cut. Because the way bubble risk and data transparency feed the Score was upgraded and applied on 1 July, this month's point changes are mostly a one-time recalibration rather than market movement — rankings compare like-for-like again next month. Cycle phases use the annual CASABROVA Master Index; 2024 is the last finalized year and 2025 is provisional.
Sources
- CASABROVA monthly Score cut — 1 July 2026 (baseline: 1 June 2026)
- CASABROVA Master Index — annual cycle & supply data (2024 final; 2025 provisional)
- CASABROVA legal & tax reference dataset