本文由 CASABROVA 的 AI 编辑系统策划，并经我们的编辑审阅。
本文尚未翻译成中文。以下内容为英文。
Reduced monthly edition. The quarterly briefing is held pending the macro data update and will follow. Score cut 1 October 2026 · 29 markets · compared against the cut of 1 September 2026
TL;DR
- The board barely moved. Twenty-one of twenty-nine markets are unchanged. Three markets moved by two points or more, and none of the three moved because of anything that happened in that market.
- Germany rose and the Netherlands fell on our house-price risk reading — a comparative measure, so both moved when other markets' price and transaction histories were corrected this month. Neither country's own figures changed.
- The top of the board is a three-way tie. Estonia 74.6, Poland 74.3, Slovenia 74.3. Three tenths of a point separates first from third. That is a tie, and we would rather say so than dress it up as a ranking.
This Month's Score — Top 5
| # | Market | Score | Last month | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estonia | 74.6 | 74.5 | +0.1 |
| 2 | Poland | 74.3 | 74.3 | — |
| 3 | Slovenia | 74.3 | 73.5 | +0.8 |
| 4 | Ireland | 72.9 | 72.9 | — |
| 5 | United States | 72.3 | 72.3 | — |
Nobody in the top five changed position.
The full board: Estonia 74.6 · Poland 74.3 · Slovenia 74.3 · Ireland 72.9 · United States 72.3 · UAE 71.4 · Germany 71.2 · United Kingdom 71.2 · Greece 70.0 · Japan 69.3 · Denmark 69.1 · Netherlands 68.9 · Cyprus 68.6 · Thailand 67.3 · Romania 67.2 · New Zealand 67.0 · Israel 66.4 · Canada 66.0 · Spain 65.8 · Georgia 65.8 · Croatia 65.3 · Czechia 65.1 · South Korea 64.3 · Portugal 63.3 · Italy 62.6 · Hungary 56.6 · Mexico 56.0 · Australia 55.7 · Singapore 53.2
Movers
Twenty-one markets did not move at all. Three crossed two points.
Germany +2.0 (69.2 → 71.2) and the Netherlands −2.0 (70.9 → 68.9)
These two belong together, because they share a cause and it is not a German or Dutch one.
For both markets, the only thing that changed is our reading of house-price risk. Neither country's own data moved — every German and Dutch price and transaction figure from 2008 to 2025 is identical to what it was two months ago.
What changed is the comparison. Our house-price risk reading is relative: it measures each market against the others rather than against a fixed line. This month seven other markets had their price or transaction histories corrected at source, some substantially — Croatia's 2023 transaction figure was revised down by more than a third, Poland's 2025 transaction figure was withdrawn by its publisher, and Georgia gained a price series where it previously had none. Redraw the comparison with those corrections in it and every market shifts a little. Germany and the Netherlands were close enough to the line that a little was enough.
What a buyer should take from it: nothing. Germany did not become safer and the Netherlands did not become riskier. If you were weighing one against the other last month, this should not change your mind. We are showing you the move rather than hiding it, because a comparative measure that can shift when your own country's numbers are unchanged is something you should know about any ranking, ours included.
The underlying pictures, unchanged but worth stating. German prices rose about 3.2% in 2025 against 2.3% inflation — under one percent in real terms — with transactions still well below their 2015 level and the 2022–2024 correction still visible in the data. Dutch prices rose about 8.5%, and the Dutch construction pipeline has been expanding at the same time: the largest supply increase of any market we track.
Cyprus +2.0 (66.6 → 68.6)
Cyprus's only changed component is tax. We updated the tax figure we hold for Cyprus so that it better reflects, in our view, the tax liability a buyer can reasonably expect on a typical Cypriot purchase. The underlying substance is set out in the Tax section below.
Nothing in the Cypriot market moved this month. This is our figure getting closer to reality, not Cyprus getting cheaper.
Smaller moves
Estonia, Slovenia, Japan and Romania each rose by less than a point on the same kind of work — the tax component we compute for each was refreshed against current research. These are our figures improving, not four governments cutting tax in the same month, and the distinction matters more than the moves do.
New Zealand's score is unchanged to two decimal places but it slips two places, simply because Cyprus and Romania passed it. A reminder to read the scores and not the ranks.
Tax and Regulation
No new law took effect in the last 30 days that our data evidences. We chased one reported change this month and it turned out not to be one — which is worth a paragraph, because the failure mode is more useful than the incident.
A reported Slovenian tax cut that isn't one
Several tax advisory newsletters this year reported that Slovenia had cut tax on rental income from 25% to 15%. It would have mattered — Slovenia is tied for second on our board.
It has not happened. The Slovenian tax authority's own Slovenian-language guidance, refreshed in February 2026, states 25% and has done since 1 January 2023; the 15% rate applied to tax year 2022 only. No statute and no amendment exists. What exists is a bill tabled by a group of MPs in April 2026. The authority's English-language page does say 15%, and it was last refreshed in May 2025 — its own translation, years behind its own native page.
Our figure of 25% is correct and stays. Three things we took from it: several reputable sources agreeing is not a measurement; a government's English page can lag its native one by years, and the native page governs; and "adopted" in a tax newsletter sometimes describes a bill rather than a law.
Cyprus
Cyprus abolished the Special Defence Contribution on rental income in January 2026, and abolished stamp duty from 1 January 2026. Rental income remains within personal income tax on a progressive scale with a tax-free band, so a non-resident buyer letting a single modest apartment in Cyprus can reasonably expect no tax on the rent itself. Cyprus also levies a health contribution on rental income, but it attaches to participants in the Cypriot health system, which a non-resident foreign buyer with no other Cypriot ties is not.
This is the substance behind the Cyprus move above.
Estonia
Estonia raised its flat income and capital gains rate from 20% to 22%. Estonia is our top-ranked market, and this is a real, adverse change to what a buyer keeps. It is reflected in our figures and belongs in any Estonia write-up rather than buried in a tax table.
House-Price Risk — Georgia
Georgia carries no published house-price risk rating. We rate that risk from six separate inputs, and for Georgia only one of them is currently available.
Editorial
Four pieces published in the last 30 days:
- "Cyprus's Housing Pipeline Is Expanding. Will Supply Catch Up?" (30 Sep) — the strongest pairing with this month's board. Cyprus has the highest transaction activity of any market we cover and a pipeline still expanding into it.
- "Portugal After the Golden Visa Property Route: Is Demand Changing?" (27 Sep) — Portugal sits 24th after a long price run, and carries one of the higher house-price risk readings on the board.
- "Focus for the Israeli investor" (10 Sep) — covers Estonia, Slovenia, Romania, Cyprus and Israel. Four of those five had their tax component refreshed this cycle, so the piece is worth a read-through before it is promoted further.
- September 2026 briefing (5 Sep).
Not in This Edition
This is a reduced monthly. The quarterly briefing is held pending the macro data update and will follow later this month.
The quarterly will carry the macro dashboard — central bank decisions, benchmark rates and currency — and the cycle-phase chapter, which is not included here because there were no cycle changes to report.
Methodology Note
CASABROVA Score v6. Scores are cut on the first of each month; this edition uses the cut of 1 October 2026 across 29 markets, compared against the 1 September 2026 cut on the same methodology, so no methodology change sits between the two readings.
Yield, rental and short-let figures are estimates built from AI-assisted research synthesising publicly available data. They are approximations, updated periodically, and we hold no paid market-data subscription.
Sources
Measured on our own production data on 1 October 2026: the monthly score cuts of 1 October and 1 September; annual house price and transaction series; our own tax and regulatory research; mortgage terms across all 29 markets, refreshed to Q3 2026; and articles published in the 30 days to 1 October.
On the Slovenian rental rate, the controlling source is the Slovenian Financial Administration's own Slovenian-language guidance, refreshed February 2026.